Despite Earth’s resilience to last weekend’s intense solar storm, experts caution that more severe solar eruptions could continue to impact us until 2025. Dr. Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist, explained to DailyMail.com that the sun has not yet reached its “solar maximum,” the peak of its 11-year cycle characterized by heightened solar activity and energy output. This maximum is expected to occur in July 2025.
Dr. McDowell warned that we could face significantly larger storms over the next couple of years. The recent “extreme (G5) geomagnetic conditions” were triggered by a massive sunspot, larger than the one responsible for the notorious 1859 Carrington Event, which caused widespread telegraph disruptions and even set telegraph wires on fire. Space weather experts believe that a direct hit from future solar storms could be even more damaging.
During the 2019 solar minimum, the number of visible sunspots on the sun’s surface was nearly zero. However, by the upcoming maximum in July 2025, the US National Space Weather Prediction Center anticipates up to 115 sunspots. These magnetically dense areas can produce solar flares and powerful coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can severely impact satellites, radio communications, and power grids.
The 11-year solar cycle only increases the sun’s total radiation output by a small percentage, but this additional energy is highly concentrated in sunspot activity. The excess energy, documented to disrupt satellites and black out radio communications, poses significant challenges for satellite operators. Even without major solar storms, the elevated radiation levels as we approach the solar maximum are already straining satellite infrastructure.
Dr. McDowell highlighted the increased drag on the Hubble Space Telescope due to higher atmospheric density caused by solar activity. He noted that Hubble’s orbital decay rate doubled due to the recent solar storm, accelerating its descent towards Earth. Satellites are more vulnerable during this period, facing heightened risks of electrostatic discharges and increased drag, requiring mission controllers to be extra vigilant.
Last weekend’s G5 geomagnetic storm disrupted GPS satellites, stalling farming equipment across the US Midwest. Farmers reported that their tractors were shut down due to the solar storm. This incident underscores the immediate and practical impacts of solar activity on daily life and technology.
The Chandra X-ray telescope, operated by Dr. McDowell and launched in 1999, also took precautions to protect its instruments during the storm. While not the entire spacecraft was shut down, certain components were turned off to prevent electrical damage. Past solar storms have caused significant losses, such as the 1994 event that damaged three satellites, including one that was lost entirely.
Currently, space weather experts rely on tracking sunspots to forecast solar storms. By monitoring these active areas, they can predict when they might face Earth and potentially cause disruptions. Dr. McDowell emphasized the importance of improving these forecasting methods to better prepare for future solar storms.
As we approach the solar maximum, the risks to satellites, power grids, and communications systems will increase. Continuous monitoring and advances in forecasting are crucial to mitigate the potential impacts of these powerful solar events.